Sinn Fein and the Government Parties make gains: Constituency- levels analysis of the Irish Times -Ipos MRBI poll taken on the 26th March 2015
Nearly two weeks after the last series of Red C, Millward Brown and Behaviour & Attitudes opinion polls, the first Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI poll of 2015 continues the trend of improving fortunes for the government parties, although the combined level of support being commanded by Fine Gael and Labour is some percentage points lower than that recorded by these parties in the Red C and Behaviour & Attitudes polls.
This new poll offers more good news for Sinn Fein while support levels for Independents and Others remains strong, despite falling somewhat. Fianna Fail will be concerned about their continued low levels of support in this opinion poll and other recent polls, especially as this Ipsos MRBI poll points to a notable drop in support levels for that party since the last such poll in late 2014.
This Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI poll estimates party support levels as follows (and relative to the previous such Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI poll):
Independents and Others 28% (down 4%), Fine Gael 24% (up 5%), Sinn Fein 24% (up 2%), Fianna Fail 17% (down 1%), Labour Party 7% (up 1%). My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 28, Fine Gael 46, Sinn Fein 40, Labour Party 4, Independents and Others 40.
Adrian Kavanagh
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